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      今日要聞

      5月份AMI指數為41.8%,農機市場處于類似“戒斷期”階段

      2023-06-07 09:23:31 來源:中國農業機械流通協會 閱讀量:14935 評論

      導讀:中國農業機械流通協會發布的2023年5月份中國農機市場景氣指數(AMI)為41.8%,環比下降6.2個百分點,同比下降8.5個百分點。

        【農機網 市場行情】中國農業機械流通協會發布的2023年5月份中國農機市場景氣指數(AMI)為41.8%,環比下降6.2個百分點,同比下降8.5個百分點。從環比看,6個一級指數中,全部呈現下降趨勢。其中經理人信心指數降幅最大,為9.0個百分點。從同比看,6個一級指數也全部呈現下降趨勢,其中銷售能力指數降幅最大,為14.8個百分點。6個一級指數全部位于不景氣區間。
       
        特約分析師張華光認為:在很多方面的預估當中,2023年對于國內農機市場來說,都是很不友好、且充滿風險、甚至較為慘淡的一年。至少在過去的5個月,國內農機市場的持續低迷,已經到了讓很多廠商和經銷商難以承受的地步,出現了極度焦慮……。農機市場正處在一個類似于“戒斷期”的階段。從數據層面看,5月份,AMI的表現佐證了這一特點:環比、同比雙雙下跌,一級指數悉數擊穿榮枯線,尤其是經理人信心指數,走進深度不景氣區間,創下多年未有之低點。
       
      5月份AMI走勢的基本特征
       
        市場低迷,信心偏弱。5月份,農機市場整體走勢偏弱,AMI和六個一級指數均位于不景氣區間。低迷的市場拉低經理人信心預期,信心指數以37.2個百分點創下近三年同期歷史新低,庫存指數、人氣指數環比均走出三連跌情勢,均詮釋著當下農機市場之慘淡境況。體現在數據層面,根據我們從其它渠道監測到的數據,1-5月整體市場同比大幅度下降20%以上。
       
        競爭激烈,效益下滑。銷量下滑的同時,一些細分市場產量還呈現幅度比較大的增長,導致的結果——供過于求,呈現出一種“沒有增長的繁榮”。隨著市場需求減弱,消費者購買農機欲望的降低,加之數量龐大的農機制造群,這些企業在繁榮時期擴充的產能,招收的員工,都需要很大的成本來維系。不少企業就只能竭盡所能,通過各種促銷手段,甚至不惜使用“非常規”競爭手段,來增強市場和消費者的感知,吸引消費者去購買。而且在競爭激烈的形勢下,農機在價格等層面也需要更有競爭力,很多品牌攤薄單臺利潤,就是一個必然結果,直接導致效益大幅度下滑。本月的效益指數在經歷上月大幅度下跌后再度跌至39.4%的低位,正是當下市場的真實寫照。
       
        細分市場冷熱不均,跌多增少。在本月所監測的五個二級指數中,除種植機械指數仍停留在景氣區間且環比、同比略有增長外,其余的拖拉機、耕整地機械、田間管理機械和收獲機械指數環比、同比同聲下跌,均進入不景氣區間。
       
        大中拖市場。大型拖拉機指數為40.5%,中型拖拉機指數為36.8%,不僅景氣度位于歷史低位,而且同比、環比均出現不同程度的下滑。這與我們通過其它渠道監測到的結果驚人的一致,1-5月,大中拖銷售15萬余臺,同比降幅近20%,預計全年下滑幅度將超過30%。
       
        種植機械市場。種植機械市場成為5月份細分市場不多的亮點之一,以50.7%的景氣度堅守于景氣區間,且同比、環比均出現增長,雖然增幅較小。其中,免耕播種機指數同比、環比均出現小幅攀升,且位于景氣區間。插秧機市場繼續徘徊在不景氣區間。從市場調查結果看,全年市場走勢不容樂觀。
       
        收獲機市場。履帶式谷物聯合收割機和玉米聯合收割機指數不僅深陷不景氣區間,而且景氣度偏低,其中,自走式玉米收獲機指數同比狂跌46.0%。與我們市場調研的結果高度吻合,1-5月份,這兩大市場銷售同比降幅在20%-50%之間。自走輪式谷物聯合收割機指數趕在麥收開始前做最后沖刺,環比提升6.7個百分點進入景氣區間,但同比仍位于三年來最低點。結合去年下半年市場的上佳表現而形成的市場“高地”,我們預判全年市場出現“跳水”的概率很大。
       
        2023年6月份AMI走勢判斷
       
        我們預判:6月份,AMI難有起色,或將繼續滯留于不景氣區間,且多數一、二、三級指數環比下挫的概率很大。
       
        多重利空因素疊加,市場難以破局。首先,6月份正值農機市場的傳統淡季,廣大農村正值“三夏”農忙,尤其是北方,搶收搶種,農機市場進入間歇期;其次,2023年國內農機市場整體低迷,已經成為了既定事實。隨著老百姓農機投資邊際收益遞減、加之去年市場的嚴重“透支”、傳統市場飽和等多重利空因素疊加,老百姓消費信心不足,不敢花錢買農機,是一個核心原因。而對于農機廠商和經銷商們來說,眾多品牌云集國內市場,競爭慘烈,其結果就是買農機的人少了,農機卻越造越多,焦慮感會持續增強;第三,5月份,人氣指數跌破榮枯線,進入不景氣區間。經理人信心指數環比、同比“兩連跌”,且處于較低的景氣區間,預示著6月份黯淡的市場前景;第四,回溯AMI自2014年至今9年來的走勢,除去年外,均處于不景氣區間,且環比鮮有增長者,加之5月份景氣度偏低,由此決定了6月份AMI或出現兩個大概率的結果:一是景氣度環比下降,二是難以回到景氣區間。
       
        點擊下方查看或下載報告全文,包括全部一級、二級、三級指數運行情況
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